2012's Last Snowfall

Another weak system will impact parts of the Midwest on New Years Eve. A trough of low pressure will emerge from the Rockies and begin to weaken almost simultaneously. However, there will be enough moisture to squeak out a plowable snowfall for some.  If banding sets up perfectly, the way it is shown in the models, the area of 3"+ may see up to 5" of the white stuff. There are winter weather advisories out for a wide area, given the timing and mass travel that will be occurring during the snow. Use caution and as always, give yourself some extra time when venturing out.

Snow Maker Winding Down

The storm system that brought snow to northern parts of the Midwest is coming to an end. It is just about snowing itself out. We had a couple areas of lake effect and lake enhancement. The arrowhead of Minnesota saw up to 6". There were a few band off southern Lake Michigan which brought a few inches to may areas there. And finally, we are seeing some feeder bands near Green Bay which is added to totals this evening. From Green Bay to Oshkosh to Sheboygan in Wisconsin, totals will generally be in the 6-8" range.

Light Snow Update

Models are coming in a little more aggressive with snow ratios and water content. We had to bump up totals generally by an inch from Milwaukee to Sioux Falls. Because it will be such a widespread light snow, the snow forecast on the left has overlapping totals. This was the best way to provide the most accurate forecast. Here are a few forecasts for some of the larger cities:
Sioux City: 3-5"
Madison/Milwaukee/Rochester: 2-4"
Minneapolis/Green Bay: 1-2"
Omaha/Des Moines: icy inch

Weak System Moving Through

Some of you will see a light fluffy snow accumulate in your backyard today or tomorrow. A very weak system will be moving through Thursday and Friday  It will not have much moisture to work with and will not have favorable conditions for intensification. However, some places may squeak out a 5" amount. There are winter weather advisories out for north west Iowa and counties nearby. As the low pressure center moves through it will actually weaken so amounts to the east will be lesser. However, the area from northern Iowa to Milwaukee will have to be watched. It may need to be included in the 2-5" portion. Stay tuned!

Winter Storm Forecast

Quick update with a snow forecast today. Hope everyone is having a good Christmas Eve. Models are narrowing down the heavy band so we felt we could make our first snow map for the storm. Uncertainty is down to about 25 miles north/south. So the map on the left looks pretty concrete. Winter storm watches, warning and blizzard watch are in effect. Stay tuned fore updates.

Winter Storm After Christmas

A strong winter storm will move through parts of the Midwest on Tuesday night and Wednesday. The storm will come out of the Rockies and deepen as it will have full access to gulf moisture as it moves northeast. It looks like there will be a narrow band of heavy snow with this storm. It will be tough to pinpoint the exact location of this plowable snow, but it does appears 4-8"+ will fall. A secondary low pressure system will likely develop on the east coast and widen the area of snow. Never the less, expect winter storm watches to begin being posted by the national weather service some time tomorrow.

Light Snow then a Storm?

A very weak system will touch off a little light snow from  North Dakota to lower Michigan, not much for accumulation (dusting to an inch) but it may provide a snow shower on Christmas Eve. Then attention turns to the next system surging out of the Rockies on Tuesday. It will dip south and head towards the Ohio Rover Valley on Wednesday. The potential exists for several inches of snow from Arkansas to Ontario. Some areas may see 6". We will have more as the storm gets closer. Another storm is also showing for next weekend, taking a similar track of the latest blizzard. Stay tuned!

The Blizzard of 2012 Summary

Well, the blizzard is done but the clean up is still occurring  This winter storm did pan out as expected and some of the total are very impressive. Reaching a central pressure of 982mb, perfect scenerio of a system in the Midwest producing heavy snow. The same storm produced severe weather and tornado as far south as Florida. The cloud field reached from the gulf a Mexico to southern Canada. Madison, WI had the highest total with 20", with the help of a couple thunderstorms wrapping into the cold air right on top of them. Thundersnow was pretty common with this system. We will continue to update you throughout the winter

BLIZZARD UPDATE

Snow totals were increased in this update, The blizzard of 2012 shows no signs on weakening. The snow is already falling in the Plains and will move in by the evening for many areas, then continue through Thursday evening. Many areas will see about a foot of snow, with up to 18" if areas from Iowa to Green Bay. Keep Safe!

PS: Keeping an eye on a possible storm next week...stay tuned!

Crippling Blizzard Thursday

A crippling blizzard is going to strike the Midwest Wed/Thur. Central Iowa up to Green Bay looks to be the hardest hit. MANY areas will see a foot of more of snow, with winds gusting over 40mph. Blowing and drift will be a problem and some travel may be impossible. Schools will close Thursday and drifts to 4 feet can be expected. Models are finally coming together on the track, so the snow map was made with a good amount of confidence. We will narrow down amounts and the storm gets closer. Expect blizzard warnings to go in effect starting Wed night.

Winter Storm Update

Still on track, the first major winter storm will begin to impact the Midwest Wednesday night and last through Thursday. The snow forecast is based on the most likely track (the middle black line). The red cone is the range of track computer models are showing. If the track shifts, the heavy snow band will also shift. With that in mind, it does look likely that someone will get 10-14". It is just impossible to pin down the heavy snow band with a variance in computer models. After the storm passes, cold air will crash in and lead for a cold weekend. Stay tuned for updates!

MAJOR WINTER STORM WED/THUR

A major winter storm will strike the Midwest Wednesday night into Thursday. It will likely lead to blizzard warnings in some areas. The models do still have some differences in the track of the system. The map in the left show the MOST LIKELY scenario and should be used a a reference. With that said, someone will get over a foot of snow and the dark blue will possibly see 6-12" if the track holds. With the mild winter last year, this will likely shape up as the largest winter storm in almost 2 years. You are going to want to stay tuned for updates throughout the week!

Major Winter Storm Shaping up for Late Next Week

It is starting to look more and more probable for a winter storm, that will bring a white Christmas for many. Models are starting to come together on the track. The map on the left shows the cone of possible tracks of this system. The most likely track brings it from the Rockies through Missouri to Chicago to central Michigan. Where ever the track ends up, snow should fall heavily about 50-75 miles north of the track, with the possibility of 6"+ in a large area. This is the historic track of strong winter storms in the Midwest. Stay tuned for updates throughout the week, also you can like our Facebook page for more updates! ------->

Sunday Evening Update: Storm still on track, favoring the southern side of the cone. Storm totals will likely top a foot in some areas. STAY TUNED!

Weekend Storm Update

Looks like most of the warm air is going to win out in this system. Mostly rain, for much of the midwest. However, A wintery mix is likely in southern MN and northern WI. Even further north the snow will accumulate on grassy surfaces up to 5" is some spots, maybe 6" in the heavy bands. Freezing rain shouldn't be to much of an issue as the atmosphere is not set up quite right for it. In general, it looks like a wet weekend for many people.

Weekend Storm Jogs a Little North

Not much has changed since the last post. However the storm did jog a touch north, dragging the snow north. Amount still looks to be in that 3-6" range somewhere, we will narrow that down tomorrow. Also, the storm looks to slow down and wrap cold air around, maybe before the precipitation ends, meaning there is a chance for a mix or snow towards the end of the event in Iowa and Southern Wisconsin. Meanwhile, somewhat heavy rain will fall south of the track, about 0.5"-1.0" likely in many areas. The warm December continues for many..

Weekend Storm

Another, weaker, storm system looks to impact the area this weekend. Models are showing decent agreement in the track of the system. However they vary on the amount of cold that will work in. The map on the left shows the odds of seeing snow or a mix. The margin of error is about 50-100 miles north or south of the current situation. We will see how this one plays out. The NAO is around -1, meaning the track makes sense. It is just a matter of cold air available. Those interested in possible amounts...models are showing 3-6" is some areas.

Winter Storm Update

Overall, the forecast still looks good. Added to totals in the Minneapolis area due to a deformation zone setting up over that area. The clouds will basically empty themselves over central Minnesota.

Winter Storm Update

Quick update on the snow map tonight. Not to much has changed. It does look like the northern stream will win out this time around. If you miss out on this storm, another one appears to be possible next weekend.

3:10pm update: Snow map still looks good, northern areas of lower Michigan should expect to be on the lower end of the 3-6", maybe more like 2-4".

Winter Storm Sunday

The storm we have been watching for the past week or so has split. Here is the first snow map based on the latest model runs. There is some variance in the models. Some want to develop the southern low pressure more and some want to strengthen the northern piece of energy. Overall the northern low seems to win. We will be watching the area in orange as this area has the potential for snow accumulations.

 Here is an image off the 00z GFS model run, showing the stronger northern low. The darkest green shows the area of heaviest snow. Iowa may see some mix, along with northern IL and southern WI.

It will emerge from the Rocky Mountains as two pieces. Again, the strongest piece appears to move through the northern plains. This will be watched as it is the key to figuring out this storm! stay tuned!

Winter Storm Sunday/Monday

Good evening, before getting into the forecast, realize we are on the very preliminary aspects of forecasting winter storms, 5-6 days out. With it being the first winter storm on the year models usually have some difficulties in forecasts. With that said, models are converging on a solution (see map). However, they vary on intensity and how much snow will fall. some 2-5". and some have a full blown winter storm (6"+) Stay tuned! look for an update late tomorrow evening with a first look at a snowfall map! The energy is still in the Pacific Ocean, so things may change a bit, but tomorrow and friday will help to narrow things down.

Historic Warm Up?

Sunday will be the transition day. A warm front will push north shifting winds in a southerly direction, pumping up much warmer air.

Monday will be the warmest day. Much of the midwest will topple record highs for the day, and many spots will flirt with hitting their all time December highs. After Monday a cold front will move in and bring temps down to seasonable level. We are watching the possibility of a major cool down come next weekend, and a likely pattern change that will bring the full force of winter. Stay tuned!

Snow Map For Tonight

Expect some snow during the evening and overnight hours. 1-2" has fallen in northern Minnesota at this hour.

Transition Thanksgiving, Cold to Come

Enjoy Thanksgiving, not only for the food and family, but likely the warmest day for much of the Midwest til early Spring. Temperature will reach record highs in many areas. Once the cold front moves through winds will shift from the southwest to the north, and usher in a much colder air mass  This transformation will occur during black Friday hours, so don't be surprised if it cools off rapidly as you are out and a bout. The areas in green may see some scattered showers during peak shopping time, as many stores open at 8pm Thursday night. Furthermore, we are watching a storm next week, with snow. Stay tuned over the weekend!

Midwest Winter Forecast!

Here it is, the midwestweather.org winter forecast.
This forecast was done through a process called ensembling. Multiple forecasts were evaluated and average out to make the forecast you see on the left. Earlier this fall many weather outlets were thinking there would be a moderate El nino, which would lead to above average temperatures and below average snow. That forecast will likely prove to be inaccurate because the latest forecast done by NOAA and the CPC is predicting a very weak El nino to no El nino. Overall, it will likely be a somewhat normal onw in the midwest, with areas of cold and above average snow.

The graph on the right show the NAO (north atlantic oscillation). In simple terms, a positive value means quite weather and a negative value mean stormy and cold, for the most part. Since it has been negative for much of the fall, the start of the winter should include such values. This will lead to the worst of the winter to occur in December an January. The large winter storms will likely occur early and then transition to "clipper" systems to end the winter in February and March. These storms usually track on the blue arrow above.

11/25/2012 update: The NAO is negative and forecasted to fall even more negative, look for a stormy December.

11/27/2012

Here is one indicator of a snowy winter possibly ahead of us. The more snow to our north, the colder it will be in the midwest. The snow reflects incoming radiation instead of absorbing. This leads to colder temperature overall.

Here is one model depiction of snowfall through Christmas. The area in brown shows a snow depth of 10" or more. This goes along with the negative NAO and weakening el nino. Many computer models are showing an active start to the month beyond the 5th. We will have to wait and see how the storms pan out, but it is looking like a snowy month.

Warm Thanksgiving Week

The weekend and next week will bring a strong warm up. The jet steam will surge north allowing for strong southerly winds. The warmest day will be Tuesday in the plains and Wednesday in midwest/great lakes. A storm system will then move through on Friday, bringing rain and much colder temperature from Canada. Generally it will be dry so traveling should not be a problem. Maybe some scattered showers on Sunday night into Monday in Wisconsin and Illinois, but nothing much. Stay tuned to midwestweather.org for any updates on the Thanksgiving forecast!

Blizzard Update

Another update on the first real blizzard for the northern plains. There have been many snow totals of over 10" the same can be expected in far northern parts of North Dakota. For the most part the area in the green will be battling a wintery mix before changing over to snow that will accumulate up to a few inches. Another problem with this storm in the strong winds. Although much of the snow will be a heavy wet snow, blowing snow will be a problem. Gusts up to 40mph are likely. This storm will then push east and bring heavy rain to much of the midwest. Keep it here for updates!

Snow Totals (as of 12:50):
Crosby, ND: 15.0 inches

Williston, ND: 12.0 inches

Rapid City, SD: 2.4 inches

Weekend Storm Update

Storm update: quick update tonight. It is going to be an all out blizzard in Montana and northwest North Dakota. Some snow may fall on the back side of the heavy rain Sunday night into Tuesday  See last post for more information

Weekend Storm for Plains and Midwest

A strong storm system will move into the area this weekend. Very heavy snow will break out behind the system on Friday in areas north west of North Dakota, including parts of the state it self. Enough cold air may work in to drop a couple inches in all of the light  blue area, especially in the darker blue. Ahead of the storm temperature will soar 10-20 degrees above average in much of the Midwest. Friday, Saturday, and Sunday will be warm, with Saturday the warmest in most areas. Then Saturday and Sunday will bring heavy rain as the cold front pushes in. Rain totals will approach and maybe exceed an inch in the green area on the map. Be sure to keep it here for updates throughout the week. You can also like our new facebook page: Facebook page

Some Light Snow/Mix for Election Day

As some of you head out to the pole expect some snow and/or a mix. In northern Minnesota most of you will wake up to a fresh dusting of snow on grassy surfaces. The precipitation will then shift south and east into Wisconsin (a swing state...). Will weather affect the pole? With that said don't expect much of an impact on travel as everything will be light (a few bursts of heavier snow/rain are possible). Furthermore, ground temperatures are still well above freezing so the only accumulation will be on grassy areas. Total snow amounts will not be much up to 2" in northern Minnesota and an inch or so in northern Wisconsin. A piece of energy will then dive south and merge up to form a coastal storm for the eastern seaboard. Although latest models have the storm more out to sea, this is something the people are New Jersey and New York were fearful of. Keep it here to Midwest Weather and if anything changes, this post will be updated.

10:51 update: brand new computer models have the northeast storm out to sea, with rain and gusty winds right along the shore. Is this a trend? Or a hiccup in the model? We will know for sure probably by tomorrow and model come together on this complex storm system.

Chance of Snow West of the Mississippi

After the major warm up this week, a pattern change is just around the corner. Highs will soar in the 70s in much of the midwest, especially on Wednesday. This warm up can be considered an "Indian Summer." If models hold, snow will break out on Thursday and move up into northern Minnesota by overnight hours. Enough cold air will probably be strong enough to wrap around from Canada to make this snow possible. Snow amounts should not be immense, but 1-3"/2-5" will be a good ball park amount. Check back tomorrow or Wednesday for strong numbers. After the storm moves through the cold air will crash in and much of the midwest will see temps. fall 25-35 degrees from Wednesday to the weekend.

Big Storm This Weekend

Look for a large storm to move through the midwest this weekend. Heavy rain will be the main threat, along with damaging winds. The rain will be very well welcome in drought stricken areas. See map for more info.

First Winter Storm to Hit Hard

WOW, i must say. Where did this storm come from. It was one the models 10 days ago but then fizzled so I thought, hey its October that makes sense. I was wrong! This will be a short post because how many people are going to check a winter weather blog in October? right? Well, the map speaks for itself. the computer models are in a decent agreement so be ready with what the map say! Take care, and check back as it gets closer to winter!

Severe Threat in Midwest Today

In a drought stricken region of the midwest a strong threat is prevalent for strong thunderstorms with very heavy rain. Any storms that do develop will create locally heavy rain due to the very moist air mass they are in. Damaging winds, hail, and isolated tornadoes are also likely. The are in red will likely see a tornado or severe thunderstorm watch later this afternoon. Be prepared and monitor local watched and warnings.

Very Warm Sunday in Midwest

Sunday will be a very warm day for many, likely the warmest of the year. Highs will be in the mid 90s throughout much of the midwest (see map). The warm up is due to a weakening storm system that will eventually become occluded on Sunday. As noted in the map on the left, there will be a very sharp cut off from the hot weather, to the comfortable temps in the 70s. It depends on where this front sets up during the afternoon on sunday as to who will be in the 90s and who will not. Keep it here to midwest weather talk!

Severe Weather Outbreak Later Today/Night

A severe weather outbreak should get going in the next few hours. Conditions are highly favorable for large tornados (see map) and damaging winds, with a smaller hail threat. The orange outline shows the highest risk of severe weather, especially damaging winds. The tornado outline shows the highest probability of a tornado, the damaging wind threat is also prevalent here.

A strong upper level jet will continue to follow a cold front behind a strengthening surface cyclone. A line of storms will develop in western wisconsin and central Iowa, and push east throughout the later afternoon and evening. While this may help the harsh drought in some areas, these storms can be dangerous and local forecasts and warnings should be monitored. Keep it here to midwest weather talk



EDIT 7:55 central time... severe threat not as high, but still prevalent:

Severe Weather/ Heavy Rain in Midwest

A slow moving storm system currently in the Upper Plains will be a strong weather maker in the midwest the week. As a strong upper level wind strengthens today, it will cause a fairly high dose of severe weather, especially in North Dakota. The primary threat being large hail, and gusty winds. The storm will then continue to slowly move east and drag cold air with it. The cold air will be along a front that will interact with warm air rushing north to cause severe weather in the midwest (see map). Again large hail is the main threat.

Along with the severe weather threat comes very heavy rain. A general 1-3" can be expected in the outlined area with some spot easily reaching 4" depending in the individual thunderstorm tracks. Be prepared if you live in a flood pron area. And on Thursday the severe weather shifts east again. Conditions will not be as favorable for the heavy rain, but large hail seems likely again. Stay tuned for updates and be sure to monitor the latest watches and warnings throughout the week!

Severe Thunderstorms Today, Cooler Tomorrow

The front that caused the severe weather and thunderstorms in the midwest Sunday, will continue to bring in cooler air overnight. Monday will be an average May day,weatherwise, for all of the midwest. The atmosphere will become stabilized as the front moves through, so a couple dry days can be expected, before a warm front moves through midweek. Along with the warmth later this week the chance of thunderstorms is also prevalent. It looks like we are in this pattern for the foreseeable future...A warm up for several days, then thunderstorms along a cold front, then a cooler stretch after, an then another warm up as you may have guessed. Stay tuned to midwest weather talk for severe weather chance in the coming days.

"Colder" Week Ahead for the Midwest

Currently a cold front is pushing through the Midwest. It is developing scattered thunderstorms along the front, some severe. After the front moves through winds will shift to the north and usher in cooler air from Canada. Do not expect a cold today tomorrow, but rather an average May day with ample sunshine throughout the Midwest as high pressure moves in. Be sure to stay tuned for updates and enjoy the weather over the next several days.

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Severe Weather Possible Today

Some strong thunderstorms will likely develop later today and tonight. Warm moist air will rush north providing instability is a small area of the midwest. The primary threat it large hail, and strong winds. The threat of a tornado is small, but still prevalent. Look at the map for the chance in your backyard. Be sure to check back for updates stay safe.

Aggressive Warm Up Next Week

A large and lengthy warm up is shaping up for next week in the midwest. Temperatures are already moderating this week, but the main slew of warm air will move into the midwest during the middle of next week. Temperature will run 10-20 degrees above average in most places, assuming it is sunny that day.

More Severe Weather on Wednesday

There have been over 70 severe weather reports already today, and the peak has yet to come. Tomorrow the severe threat will shift a little to east, and shift even more to the east thursday. A line of thunderstorms will likely develop along a warm front tomorrow in the northern Iowa areas and progress east throughout the day. The main threat will still be damaging winds and large hail.