Winter Storm Number 1 of Parade of Storms for the Midwest

We are likely headed into the most active pattern of the year in terms of winter storms for the lower Midwest. For starters, a winter storm will dump in excess of 6" across many areas by Saturday night. Prefrontal snows have already dumped ~5" of snow near the Nebraska and Kansas border and light snow has overspread northern Illinois. The main event and deformation zone get going later tonight with the heaviest snow on Saturday morning for northern Illinois to Lower Michigan. Some lake enhancement around the Chicago area can be expected. Anyone trapped under some of these enhanced bands have the potential to see a foot of snow by Saturday evening. Points further south will see a rain to wintery mix back to rain, icing will not be a major issue, but a coating of a tenth of an inch is possible.

MORE STORMS OF THE WAY

Storm #2

Timing: Monday night through Tuesday

Track: somewhere through the Ohio River Valley

Intensity: potential for excess of 6" of snow

Storm #3 Potential

Timing: next weekend

Intensity: winter storm caliber, several inches of snow with heavy rain further south

Track: Still up in the air, being 8-9 days out.





Total 10 day "POSSIBLE" snow fall, via instant weather maps

WINTER STORM OVER POPULATED MIDWEST CITIES

Made some minor tweaks to the initial forecast from earlier today, and added expected snow totals area-wide. While this is preliminary...models are handling this storm fairly well. Still pinpointing downtown Chicago as the hotspot for the heaviest snow. Like every storm, the exact axis is subject to change 30-40 miles before the main event. Either way around a half foot of snow is likely across NE Illinois. 

Narrow Band of Heavy Snow to Hit Chicago Area Saturday

On Friday a mid-level area of low pressure will emerge from the Rockies and drift northeast towards the Great Lakes. A narrow band of heavy snow will fall on the NW side of the track. This put the heaviest snow around the Chicago area. Winter storm watches are already in effect and will likely become winter storm warning by tomorrow. On the southern side (warmer side) a wintry mix will develop. Even further south heavy rain will fall, see map below for the 72 hour total precipitation. Expect and update and full snow map tonight or tomorrow.

Clipper Snows for Thursday and Thursday Night

An Alberta clipper will drop "plowable" snows across parts of the Midwest on Thursday. A broad band of 2-4" will set up from southern Minnesota to the UP of Michigan. After the arctic airmass in place this week all of the snow will be on the light and fluffy side. Snow tapers off by Thursday night.
Another storm system will bring accumulating snow to points further south. It has the potential to drop 3-6" of snow on Saturday in areas such as Chicago. More updates on that to come.

Blizzard Conditions Saturday Night into Sunday

A robust Alberta Clipper will dive southeast into the Midwest tonight and into Sunday. It will not have much moisture to work with, but the strong pressure gradient will serve as the driving force for strong and gusty winds. Snow amounts will be on the lighter side, with a narrow band of 2-4" and maybe an isolated 5" amount in eastern Iowa or northern Illinois and points east. Although amounts will be light blowing and drifting will be a major issue.

Blizzard watches are in effect and will likely switch over to a blizzard warning later today. Road closures are possible in the locations that usually see them. The snow will also be light and fluffy causing more problems as any snow plowed off the roads will have the tendency to blow back. Along with the snow, extreme cold temperatures will be ushered in after the storm passes and wind chills will really ramp up by early next week, see previous post.

A Piece of the Polar Vortex to Break off for Early Next Week

Exactly 3 weeks after the widely covered media event that was the "Polar Vortex"...another Arctic blast is on tap next week for Monday and Tuesday across all of the Midwest. A piece of the polar vortex will break off the main circulation and will be sent due south by early next week. Along with high temperatures stuck below zero, gusty winds will pose a major problem in terms of extreme wind chill. Widespread wind chill warnings will be posted yet again, especially in the darker two shades on the map, where wind chill under -40 will be common.

On the right is the map of 850mb temperatures off the NWS GFS computer model. This is similar to the airmass in place three weeks ago, but will not be as expansive. Schools will close in many areas yet again, but a statewide shutdown is not quite expected at this time. The cold looks to stick around over the next 10+ days throughout all of the Midwest, as winter is holding its own. It is safe to say our winter forecast Click Here! has panned out. A possible turn around to above normal temperatures is possible in the next 3-4 weeks.

Polar Vortex Round Two?

Much more cold on the way...An arctic outbreak similar to the widely covered "Polar Vortex" around January 6th will set up early next week with similar temperatures and wind chills. Wind chill advisories and warning will be issued as we get closer.

A larger update will be posted tomorrow.

WINTER STORM TO CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING

On going Winter Storm in Wisconsin and points east. Here is a close up of TOTAL snow accumulation by Wednesday morning. Notice the band of 7"+ in North Central Wisconsin. It has been been snowing there all day, and will continue into the evening. Others who saw a lull in the action will see deteriorating conditions as the main deformation zone of heavy snow develops and moves through, 2-5" of additional accumulation in most eastern Wisconsin and into Michigan.

Quick Hitting Winter Storm Tuesday

An aggressive Alberta clipper will limit travel on Monday night into Tuesday night. Snow will develop ahead of an area of low pressure that will emerge into the Dakotas later tonight. This system will then dive southeast before making a turn to east. At the point of this turn or pivot, heavy snow is likely. Amounts on the order of 3-6" for many locations is reasonable. The snow will fall much of the day Tuesday for those in the darker shades on the map, and accumulate quickly in a light and fluffy fashion. The storm moves out by Wednesday morning.

Winter weather advisories are in effect for millions of people Tuesday. They will get expanded into Michigan likely later this afternoon. Furthermore, there is a winter storm watch for parts of eastern Wisconsin, where over 6" of new snow is possible. This axis of heavy snow will also extend into Michigan. Along with the new snow, winds will pick up slightly, some minor blowing and drifting is also likely. Be sure to check back here later this evening for an update on the first significant accumulation in over two weeks for these areas!

Several Inches of Snow Monday Night into Tuesday

An Alberta clipper along with developing trough of low pressure tailing from the Hudson Bay will bring a quick hitting snow to the Midwest. The main piece of energy (The Alberta clipper) will emerge into the Dakotas late tomorrow afternoon and scream on southeastward. A couple inches can be expected in this area. The "heavier" snow will occur with the area of low pressure begins to pivot more in a eastward fashion. This "pivot" will tend to make the snow last longer, and accumulations will therefore be higher, see darker shaded area on left.

Furthermore, there looks to be a very narrow band of heavier amounts to set up somewhere in central Wisconsin to central Michigan. Right now the band looks to set up in the darker blue shaded region on the map above. Expect winter weather advisories to be posted either tomorrow morning or tomorrow afternoon. The snow will effect the Tuesday morning commute, so be sure to check back for updates!

Wintery Mix Friday

A mixed bag of precipitation is on the way for Friday and Friday night, here is the latest computer model projections for snowfall. Still up in the air.

"Warm" Weather Ahead, Can this Exist?

Not that the cold snap of the decade is finished up, it's not, but let's talk about something many people will want to hear. Warmer weather on the way. In the meantime, just look at the temperature anomalies on your left. The departure from average. The map is valid for around 6:00pm today.  The purple shading is 30-40 coldest than average temperatures, that's a full season difference in temperature! In fact, some places in Alaska were nearly 60 degrees warmer than much of the Midwest today! -15 vs 45.

Anyways on the warm up. I can't say this will be a historic warm up, nor can I say records will in danger, but I can say this will be the first January thaw of the year for many places. Temperatures will run 5-15 degrees above average on Friday, Saturday, and Sunday! This will net temps in the 50s for southern areas, 40s central, and 30s in the north. This is a general forecast, but everyone will be above average by the weekend! Just make it through the next couple days, and mother nature will reward you!

Winter Storm Update For Tonight and Sunday

Here is our latest winter storm map for tonight into Sunday. A band of snow will set up from St. Louis to Chicago and slowly push east in time. The band of snow will develop along an Arctic front poised to push in Sunday (see last post for full analysis on the cold). Some areas in Indiana and Michigan will see around a foot of new snow. Lake enhancement is also possible on the SE shore of Lake Michigan where an isolated amount of a foot and a half is not out of the question! After the storm moves through the stage will be set for the coldest air mass in decades!

LIFE THREATENING AND HISTORIC COLD ON THE WAY, SCHOOL TO CLOSE

Long post coming, so lets start out with the numbers everyone wants/doesn't want to hear, the wind chill or "feels like" temperatures. They will be astounding throughout the Midwest on Sunday through Tuesday. Some spots will be 50 below all day on Monday, which can easily cause frostbite within 5-10 minutes if precautions are not taken. Lower Michigan looks to be the only ones spared as the surrounding warmer lakes will help to insolate this part of the state. It's not just the cold that is leading to these dangerous conditions it's the cold and the gusty, winds that will overspread the area by Sunday evening. If you look at the wind chill chart on your right you can see that a temperature of negative -25° for example only takes a wind speed of 20mph to net a wind chill of -55°! This is the kind of conditions many of us will be experiencing Monday and Tuesday. Winds will generally be in the 15-30mph range with temperatures on Monday ranging from -5° in the south to -30° in the north, bringing frostbite times around 5-10 minutes for the colder spots. This is not your grandma's cold day!

Now lets get into more of the discussion based portion of this post...

This will prove to be the coldest air since 1996, if not all time for some locations. All time records are in danger Sunday night through Tuesday.

In the meantime, a winter storm (post going up later on that) will set the stage for extreme cold, straight from the North Pole to come roaring in starting Saturday night. The bulk of the cold air passes through Sunday leading to dropping temperatures across Midwest during the afternoon. The coldest of the days looks to fall on Monday, when wind chills will be at their coldest, see above

Here are the latest numbers off forecast consensus and model data from early this afternoon. Its nothing new to places such as northern Minnesota, but what is new is the fact the cold will run 100s of miles further south. Wind chills will range from -30° to -60°+ during much of the time period of Sunday night through Tuesday morning. Highs will struggle to reach single digits below zero all day on Monday leading to possible records. The all time record high minimum is -11° for Chicago, while we are going with a high of -10°, a new record is certainly in reach! And just look at the wind chill low in Fargo, -65°, serious cold right there!

Here you see a map of 850mb off the Canadian CMC model temps (about a mile above the surface) showing the extent of the cold. For a simple perspective, the bright pink on the map is usually reserved for the north pole and part of Siberia. In fact this is what we call the "Polar Vortex." Usually this feature sits on the North Pole, spins around the globe, traps such cold in Northern Canada and Russia. However, on Monday it is poised to move south into the United States, and dominate our temperatures for a few days, before sizzling away Wednesday and Thursday!  

And now....drumroll....the latest maps off the 12z European run:

Lets start with what will likely be the coldest day for most places, Monday. On the left you see the latest 12z EURO model run displaying what this computer model has for high temperatures on Monday. Much of these are records. And no, these are not wind chills, they are actually HIGH temperatures. Temperatures like these will cause many school districts to shut down, including all of Minnesota where the governor has already called off classes for every district in the state! A rare precedent indeed! Governor Walker of Wisconsin is considering such a measure for Monday also.

And now you made it all the way to the lows for Monday morning, The map says it all! Another thing to mention is that these lows are actually "warm" considering the air mass. We are fortunate to have some clouds floating around Monday morning which will act as a blanket for our temperatures. Furthermore, gusty winds will lead to atmospheric mixing which will also help to keep temperatures from plummeting to -40! Nevertheless, much of these numbers are still record lows and should be taken very seriously! Thanks for checking out this site, be sure to add it to your favorites and "like" our Facebook page, there is a like box on the right hand side of the screen (Or Click Here!). There is also much more to check out in the tabs at the top of the screen, make yourself at home, and hope to see you again very soon.

Significant Winter Storm Before Historic Cold

Multiple cold fronts will pass through the Midwest this weekend leading to bitter cold early next week. The first front will pave the way for an area of low pressure to spin up and dump near a foot of snow in the Ohio River Valley. It looks to be a longer duration event with a light and fluffy snow falling throughout much of the day on Sunday. The exact location of the heaviest band of snow is somewhat in question, but this storm should lay down a pretty wide area of 5-10" from Illinois to Ohio. After this storm goes through, another cold front will follow and create extreme cold! Post coming                                                                                                                                 soon.

HISTORIC COLD ON THE WAY, SCHOOLS TO CLOSE UPDATE

The coldest air since 1996, if not longer is on tap for early next week. All time records are in danger Sunday night through Tuesday.

In the meantime, a weak clipper system will pass mainly to our north on Saturday which will help to set the stage for extreme cold, straight from the North Pole to come roaring in starting Saturday night. Most of the front passes through Sunday leading to dropping temperatures across most of the Midwest during the afternoon. The coldest of the days looks to fall on Monday.

Here are the latest numbers off the 12z European model from early this afternoon. Its nothing new to places such as northern Minnesota, but what is new is the fact the cold will run 100s of miles further south. Wind chills will range from -30 to -55 during much of the time period of Sunday night through Tuesday morning. Highs will struggle to reach single digits below zero all day on Monday leading to possible records. The all time record high minimum is -11 for Chicago, while this model projects a high of -12, a new record, wow!

Here you see a map of 850mb temperatures (about a mile above the surface) showing the extent of the cold. For a simple perspective, the bright pink on the map is usually reserved for the north pole and part of Siberia. In fact this is what we call the "Polar Vortex." Usually this feature sits on the North Pole, spins around the globe and traps such cold in Northern Canada and Russia. However, on Monday it is poised to move south into the United States, and dominate our temperatures for a few days, before sizzling away Wednesday and Thursday! 

Now for the maps. Lets start with what will likely be the coldest day for most places, Monday. On the left you see the latest 12z EURO model run displaying what this computer model has for high temperatures on Monday. Much of these are records. And no, these are not wind chills (see below), they are actually HIGH temperatures. With winds in the 10-20mph ranges, wind chills will be substantial, with widespread wind chill warnings likely during this time. Expect multiple schools to shut down as dangerous "feels like" temperatures overspread the Midwest.

 Now we have made it to another historic portion of this post. On the right you will see the 12z EURO forecasted low temperatures Monday morning, or Tuesday morning. Many of these numbers are all time record lows! Low temperatures are tougher to forecast this far out, as clear skies and light winds will be the determining factor as to how cold it can get. So the map on the left is one solution as to low temperatures. Be sure to stay tuned for updates, and plan accordingly if you are out and about during this stretch! 


Finally, you made it to the piercing wind chill factors. Below is a snapshot of the wind chills Monday morning assuming reasonable wind speeds. In fact, they could be colder with the gusty winds expected. These are serious values, and can cause frost bite in 4-7 minutes! Take precautions.

HISTORIC COLD POSSIBLE MONDAY AND TUESDAY

A rare posting indeed. Some of the coldest air of the decade and possibly all time for some locations will filter into the area by Monday. 

A weak clipper system will pass mainly to our north on Saturday which will help to set the stage for extreme cold, straight from the North Pole to come roaring in starting Saturday night. Most of the front passes through Sunday leading to dropping temperatures across most of the Midwest during the afternoon. The coldest of the days looks to fall on Monday.

Here you see a map of 850mb (about a mile above the surface) showing the extent of the cold. For a simple perspective, the white on the map is the lowest the color scale can go, and its even colder than that!! -30+ degrees Celsius. In fact this is what we call the "Polar Vortex." Usually this feature sits on the North Pole, spins around the globe and traps such cold in Northern Canada and Russia. However, on Monday it is poised to move south into the United States, and dominate our temperatures for a few days, before sizzling away Wednesday and Thursday!

Now for the numbers. Lets start with what will likely be the coldest day for most places, Monday. On the left you see the 12z EURO model run displaying what this computer model has for high temperatures on Monday. Much of these are records. And no, these are not wind chills, they are actually HIGH temperatures. With winds in the 10-20mph ranges, wind chills will be substantial, with widespread wind chill warnings likely during this time. Expect multiple schools to shut down as dangerous "feels like" temperatures overspread the Midwest.

Now we have made it to another historic portion of this post. On the right you will see the 12z EURO forecasted low temperatures Monday morning, or Tuesday morning. Many of these numbers are all time record lows! Low temperatures are tougher to forecast this far out, as clear skies and light winds will be the determining factor as to how cold it can get. So the map on the left is one solution as to low temperatures.
Be sure to stay tuned for updates, and plan accordingly if you are out and about during this stretch!

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National look at the expansive cold:

Snow and Lake Effect Snow New Year's Day

Yet another area of low pressure will move through the Midwest today and drop another round of decent accumulating snow. This storm will eventually merge with another system from the deep south and wind up on the east coast and drop up to a foot of snow in some places. For us, several inches of a light fluffy snow will pile up this afternoon and evening. Lake effect (see map below) will kick in as well and possibly last into Thursday. These maps are total snow for storm #3 this week. Another clipper comes in Saturday.