Accumulating Snow Friday From Iowa to Michigan

Light to Moderate snow has been developing all morning and will begin to accumulate across parts of the Midwest by the afternoon. I wide swath of 1-3" can be expected for most places. Up to 4", maybe an isolated 5" amount in Northeast Wisconsin where the strongest convergence will take place. More snow can be expected for point south on Saturday and a much larger system for Sunday and Monday. An area of 6"+ is possible with that system so stay tuned!

More Extreme Cold on the Way

More cold expected for tonight and tomorrow night.  On the left is the GFS computer model for low temperatures Wednesday morning. Notice the widespread temps below -10!

On the bottom is the projected windchills for tomorrow morning off the GFS model as well. Wind chill advisories are already posted for much of the Midwest.

Major Winter Storm and Severe Weather on the Way Thursday

Very Heavy snow on the way for parts of the Midwest on Thursday as a rapidly intensifying storm system moves northeast into the area. This system will be on the verge of bombogenesis, dropping ~20mb in a 24 hours time period. Confidence is on the rise as much of the major computer models are forecasting this solution. The area with the highest uncertainty falls in central Iowa to Green Bay, as mixing and how rapidly the cold air wraps around will play a major role in total snowfall, right now 1-3" looks like a safe bet.

Greatest severe threat has shifted slightly to the south. On the warm side, this storm looks to bring the first real severe weather threat of the season. As warm gulf moisture crashes into yet another surge of arctic air (yes the cold will return in full force by the end of the week). The main threats look to be heavy rain and large hail, with damaging winds also possible in many areas. The highest threat, at this time, appears to be in the Ohio River Valley where the best atmospheric dynamics will set up. It will be interesting to see how the snow cover effects and possibly limits severe weather potential on Thursday.

*Added in an over inch of rain area.

No matter what, heavy rain will be a major issue on Thursday. Not only will many locations see over a half inch of rain, the record breaking snow depth will play a major role in flooding. Be sure to pay attention to your local flooding advisories. Furthermore, you may want to consider shoveling snow off the roof as roof collapses will likely occur as heavy rain is soaked up like a sponge on the roof of your home or business. It is an issue every year with storm like this, and can be fixed with a preemptive strike.

Complex, Major Cross Country Storm Winter Storm Thursday into Friday

A major winter storm will strike the Midwest and much of the country Thursday, effecting over 150 million people by the time Friday rolls around. This system will bring everything from warm to cold temperatures, from heavy snow to flooding rains to severe weather.  It will prove to be a text book Spring-like area of low pressure. Models are still trying to pin down the track (which will play the largest role in who sees what). On the left you see a map of anticipated weather phenomena for Thursday. Heavy snow in Wisconsin, and severe weather south, a mix in between.

On the warm side, this storm looks to bring the first real severe weather threat of the season. As warm gulf moisture crashes into yet another surge of arctic air (yes the cold will return in full force by the end of the week). The main threats look to be heavy rain and large hail, with damaging winds also possible in many areas. The highest threat, at this time, appears to be in the Ohio River Valley where the best atmospheric dynamics will set up. It will be interesting to see how the snow cover effects and possibly limits severe weather potential on Thursday.

No matter what, heavy rain will be a major issue on Thursday. Not only will many locations see over a half inch of rain, the record breaking snow depth will play a major role in flooding. Be sure to pay attention to your local flooding advisories. Furthermore, you may want to consider shoveling snow off the roof as roof collapses will likely occur as heavy rain is soaked up like a sponge on the roof of your home or business. It is an issue every year with storm like this, and can be fixed with a preemptive strike.

Complex yet Major Storm Thursday

Now we are still 4 days out, so its nearly impossible to pin down specifics such as snow totals, icing, and severe weather. However, a major storm is on the way Thursday. A clashing of Spring and winter in the midsection of the United States. We will see everything from heavy snow (maybe 6"+) to possible icing, flooding rain on the order of 1"+ over a deep snow pack, not to mention a widespread severe weather outbreak is looking very likely. As always, it will really depend on the specific track of the system to understand who gets what. The map on the left will give you a general idea. Be sure to stay tuned for updates as this major event gets closer. In the meantime enjoy the above normal temperature area wide through the end of the week.

Winter Storm Advisories and Warnings in Effect for Monday

Accumulating snow with some lake enhancement in spots expected to impact travel on the Midwest on Monday. A robust Alberta Clipper-like system will produce a broad area of 3-6" through the Great Lakes. A smaller area of up to 7" is also likely in northwestern Wisconsin. Furthermore, the western shore of Lake Superior may see near 8" of snow with some lake enhancement working in. The snow will depart by late Monday, wind will not be a major problem this time around. 

 On the right are the latest winter weather headlines from the National Weather Service. Very broad area of winter weather advisories are in effect for multiple states, including some winter storm warnings in the pink for areas in the upper Mississippi River Valley, all of which are for heavy snow in a short period of time.
Further south winter weather advisories are also in effect for a wintry mix of sleet and freezing rain.

On the left you see images of a radar simulation ran off the 12z NAM computer model. Most areas will see the snow during the morning hours. This will make for a dicey commute for cities such as Minneapolis and Madison. The snow should push out by the late afternoon. Also notice the darker greens embedded in the wide snow band.

Quick Hitting Burst of Moderate Snow Monday

The next storm system is already making its way onshore the west coast and is poised to strike the Midwest with a decent amount of snow over a 12-16 hour time period. The snow may be heavy at times as this storm system is efficient enough to wrap around gulf moisture into a below freezing air mass. The system will continue to push east and drop a general 3-6" in the heaviest areas. Computer models differ on the amounts, being a couple days out. Stay tuned for any possible tweaks to the snow forecast.

On the right you see images of a radar simulation ran off the 12z NAM computer model. Most areas will see the snow during the morning hours. This will make for a dicey commute for cities such as Minneapolis and Madison. The snow should push out by the late afternoon. Also notice the darker greens embedded in the wide snow band.

A Few Inches of Snow Expected this Afternoon

Light Snow is ongoing and expected to begin accumulating this afternoon as a small disturbance moves through the Midwest. A small area of northeast Iowa will see an isolated 4" amount as the highest convergence will occur here. Light winds will accompany the snow, but will not factor in any more than that. The band of snow will weaken as it pushes east southeast throughout the afternoon. Another stronger storm can be expected for Monday, with winter weather advisory-like snows expected. Stay tuned!

A Midwestern Warm Up is Looming

WARMER WEATHER ON THE WAY:

For the first time in weeks the Climate Prediction Center has much of the Midwest in the above normal temperature category for the 6-10 day time period. It also appears that this small pattern change will last well into the next 1-2 weeks...much needed relief to the seemingly ended string of arctic blasts.

Final Snow Map for Tuesday Winter Storm

Some small tweaks to the snow map for today's winter storm...This is includes what has already accumulated:

Major Cross-Country Winter Storm Tuesday

Yet another major winter to hammer some of the same areas in recent memory. A very similar strength and track as the storm system on Saturday. However, more moisture will wrap around from the Gulf of Mexico into the colder air on the back side. A long band of ~6" of snow across the heart of the Midwest will blanket these areas by Wednesday. The map on the left will give you a good idea of what to expect in your neighborhood. Computer models are starting to nail down these winter storms down this winter, so confidence in fairly high.

With the increased snowpack, it will be awhile for any significant warm up. Long range models are still showing expansive cold across most of the country, with the larger departure from average in the Midwest area.  Below is the CPC 6-10 day forecast: