With the ever growing access of numerical weather models to the
general public, miss-use is becoming an increasing problem. Many of these publications
are from non-reputable weather facebook pages or other social media platforms.
However, within the past couple years local TV stations have been posting such
"forecasts" as well. Their weather graphics service is now granted
the ability to publish raw model data such as a snow
forecast, and this is a problem.
See, even with a brief precursor embedded
in the post suggesting "it's only one model," facebook users don't
always care. They either do not read the size 12 font in the upper right hand
corner, or more simply are not familiar with what a weather model is used for.
We seem to be shifting into a culture of weather forecasting where each model
is a different “forecast” instead of each meteorologist sifting through the
data/weather models and creating their own forecast. It takes experience and an
understanding of the atmosphere to properly vet each model, and the public is
unaware of this.
Regarding recent “viral” snow forecasts, some of which I have
embedded in this article, these maps are just unfair to the innocent public.
They play to the strong feelings people have about snow. The divide between “snow
lovers” and “snow haters” is strong and is an outspoken attitude on social
media. It’s is so easy for someone to share a similar map with excitement or
with anguish. These maps play to the human nature of a simple numerical value
being useful. Seeing a 24” number over your city is cause for alarm, and it
should be, but this is not how meteorology works. Telling the future is
difficult and impossible; there isn’t one map that can capture how much snow
will pile up on your doorstep, contrary to popular belief. We need to be
conscience on what we share and how we publish posts about weather. While there
is not a true way to fix this issue, I hope people become more responsible and knowledgeable
on what/when they share and learn these forecasts will never come to fruition. The hope for the meteorology community it to leap over this hurdle/dent these model forecasts have had on the social sciences aspect of forecasting and the public becomes more appreciable to the success of numerical weather prediction.
Now, since there is a threat of an early week winter storm
somewhere across the Midwest let’s talk about it. A relativity deep trough is
expected to dig into the eastern half of the country by Monday and Tuesday,
aiding in the development of a surface area of low pressure. The exact track
and location of accumulating snow is still in question as the system is well
out in the data sparse Pacific Ocean. We will have details when the storm gets
closer and provide more plausible forecasts on accumulation snow and severe
weather further south.
The first couple “snow forecasts” off the model (GFS) are
attached above, but just 6 hours later this model tells a different story (see
below). This significant change is simple proof on how these model can and do
change with events beyond 3-5 days. Please be aware with these
forecasts/clickbait, as only you can prevent model-hype. Thanks for stopping by
and feel free to follow me on twitter for more weather updates, Twitter
By: Tanner Verstegen
By: Tanner Verstegen
