Heavy Snow Targets Plains and Upper Midwest

The most significant threat of a winter storm for many across the Midwest is coming to fruition in the West and is poised to slide east through the day tomorrow. Computer models are coming together in agreement with the track and banding features expected to fall northwest of the low pressure system. A long yet narrow swath of 6"+ is expected to pile up, with an even more narrow band of 10"+. An isolated total of 15"+ is certainly possible, but too early to pin exactly where this may occur. Some indications suggest northeastern Nebraska has a good chance to see 15" with increased cold air and higher liquid to snow ratios expected here. Furthermore, anywhere along the narrow red strip may see a couple isolated totals in excess of 15", depending on where banding feature tend to stall out and pivot. The heaviest snow is expected to fall during the day on Monday. While, widespread blizzard conditions are not expected, gusty winds and blowing/drifting of snow will also occur due to the deepening area of low pressure. Now, with any weather forecast there is some inherent error in the exact track. Located below is a chart of 20+ model runs and what they suggest for snow totals in Minneapolis (left) and Green Bay (right). Still some spread, but overall not to bad for still being 36+ hours out. Based on the best science, the trends and snow ratios, the forecast above was reached. As always you can get further updates on Twitter and Facebook or find links on the right hand side of the page. Enjoy the snow, if you want it, and stay safe either way. If you care to check out some of the weather model snow outputs Click Here!

Odds Increasing for a Winter Storm Sunday-Monday

With all the cold weather settling in the past month or so, people are asking, "where's the snow?" The big snows at least. Well, the next best chance will arrive Sunday into Monday. While it is not advantageous to post a winter weather forecast 5-6 days out, confidence is above average during this time frame. The edge of accurate winter storm evolution forecasts across the Midwest is usually around the 5 day time frame. However, the difference in this case is the method of storm development. Models have consistently shown a large price of energy coming on-shore the West Coast Friday and pushing due east through the weekend. As this energy emerges on the lee side or east side of the Rocky Mountains, significant cyclogenesis is expected. In many case, including this winter, there are multiple pieces of energy that the models need to resolve and issues in accuracy arise from sampling and future progression differences. Nevertheless, the expectation is that an area of low pressure will move from the Central Plains towards the Upper Midwest Sunday into Monday. Heavy snow is expected to fall to the northwest of the track, 6"+ of snow is possible, but it's simply too early to get more specific. Keeping in mind, we are still 5+ days out, there is some uncertainty in the exact track. Below is a look at the GEFS. It is a model that is ran 20+ different times at a lower resolution with slightly different inputs to quantify error. The individual red numbers are low pressure locatations and are where the storm may end up. Notice the spread is still from southeast MN to northern IL, with the reminder that the heavy snow will fall 50-200 miles northwest of the where the low tracks. Lots to work out over the next several days, so check back for updates when necessary. Be sure to follow on Twitter and 'like' on Facebook.

Frigid & Dry Conditions Persist into 2018

Happy New Year, everyone! Weatherwise, 2018 looks to pick up right where 2017 ended, with a cold and dry pattern. When people claim they hate to see snow during the winter, but also hate the cold, be sure to remind them they do not always go hand in hand. Most of the moderate snow events across the Midwest occur with temperatures in the upper 20s to near 30. Prolonged dry periods, are often associated with arctic high pressure systems, which bring their arctic cold temperatures. Often during the winter, if the jet steam can dig south of the area and usher in cold temperatures from the north, the storm track will run well south of the Midwest and shut down large snow makers from developing. What's left in its wake is lake effect snows (which are significant in these outbreaks) and weak little disturbances that may put down an inch or two of fluffy snow from time to time. This recent cold spell is no exception. The pattern looks to hold through the first week of 2018, with the only snow across the region near the lakes. Below is expected precipitation through January 7th, showing only scattered snow showers from time to time across most of the Midwest, with lake effect snows dropping 12"+ as they tap into the relatively warm lake water and cold air above them. A pattern change is possible by the second week of the month, which should lend more snow chances, along with warmer temperatures!